UKZN’s Dr Anas Mohammed’s PhD in Statistics examined the relationships in stock markets in South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom to create hybrid models using deep learning methods to better capture changes in volatility and correlation in the financial institutions.

Meanwhile, a civil war threatened his family back home in Sudan and left him without research funding!

Using methods such as multivariate neural networks and convolutional neural networks, with statistical and econometric models such as the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model, Mohammed sought to develop better models to improve forecasting accuracy and contribute new knowledge to both statistics and financial modelling.

Drawn to statistics when he realised the central role of data in informed decision-making, Mohammed found the discipline provided the methods to understand, clean, and interpret often complex and messy data properly, making models more accurate and ensuring that decisions based on data are reliable and meaningful.

His PhD research revealed that the hybrid models combining deep learning with statistical methods outperformed traditional models in forecasting stock market volatility, both usual and expected. One of his papers demonstrated how the traditional models exceeded the sophisticated models in forecasting stock market volatility, meaning more research is required to investigate the performance of hybrid models in forecasting stock market volatility.

He completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Gezira and his master’s degree at the University of Khartoum, both in Sudan. He chose to enrol at UKZN for his PhD because of the excellent research opportunities in mathematics, statistics and computer science, and the Institution’s reputation for strong academic supervision. The University’s reputation for producing impactful research in Africa and beyond made it the ideal location for Mohammed, and he appreciated the diverse and vibrant campus community that enabled him to learn from people from different backgrounds and countries. He found supportive mentorship in his supervisors and University administrators, and a collaborative environment that propelled his research.

He had been supported by the government of Sudan through monthly stipends but these ended in December 2022 when conflict broke out between the country’s military and the Rapid Support Forces. With his wife and four children still in Sudan and communication networks down, Mohammed faced the stress of worrying about their welfare, while seeking ways to earn money to support and reunite with his family and continue his studies.

He involved himself in sport and religious activities while at UKZN, and remained committed to his family, balancing the various demands by managing his time carefully, setting priorities, and striving for consistency. This helped him maintain health, motivation, and focus.

Mohammed has started postdoctoral studies at UKZN, developing his research skills and contributing to his field.

He thanked his family, his wife Trteel and children Eilaf, Osama, Eithar and Afnan, for their patience and important role in his life and for supporting his studies. He acknowledged his supervisors, Professor Henry Mwambi and Professor Bernard Omolo, for their invaluable guidance and support, and administrators Ms Christel Barnard and Ms Tamlyn Skye for making processes easier. He also thanked international student officer Ms Sithokozile Mtshatsha and his friends.

Words: Christine Cuénod

Photograph: Sethu Dlamini